Tuesday, June 11, 2019
TIME: 9:10 am IST
US DOLLAR –INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) SHORT TERM VIEW
Usd/Inr (Spot/Inter-bank) Current price: 69.4825
Key support: 68.4700
Key resistances: 70.5200
Immediate resistance: 69.1225
Immediate support: 69.7475
Rupee will break free from 69.000-70.1000 consolidation phase and form a new range anytime soon. The positives are (i) Low global energy price (ii) Hope and expectation that Modi 2.0 will take measures for higher employment and growth. The upcoming budget will be growth and employment oriented. The risk are (a) Delayed monsoon rains, (b) Trade war risk (c) Bond market inflows and outflows. Bond yields have fallen drastically globally. Investors are investing in Indian bond market as they offer higher yield as compared to global peer. Any rise in global bond yields can result in short term outflows from Indian bond market.
Technically speaking: (a) Key long term support is at 68.4700. Crash or another wave of sell off will be there only if usd/inr trades below 68.4700. (b) 200 day moving average around 70.5200 is the key resistance. Only a break of 70.5200 will result in 72.1050 and 74.0000. (c) Two hundred week moving average is at 67.1625.
I will prefer to remain on the sidelines till 20th June (day after FOMC). Rupee should form a short term trend only after 20th June. Volatility can rise till 20th June. Monsoon progress picture will be quite clear by 20th June. Impact of monsoon will be reflected in usd/inr price on or from 20th June.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.