Aluminum Short Term View

By: Admin
3 weeks ago
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Insignia Consultants

Thursday, January 19, 2023

TIME 10:52 AM IST

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ALUMINUM SHORT TERM VIEW

Aluminum has risen 6.35% in MCX this year and 8.58% in LME cash. (as on 18th January close). Trend, momentum, demand are all bullish for Aluminum. Warm winter in Europe and USA and the subsequent sinking of electricity price in Europe is the key reason for the sharp rise in price this year. Chinese full reopening has acted as a buffer to the rising demand expectation.

In 2022, aluminum demand was more or less zero due to historically high price. European factories are buying raw aluminum like crazy due to crash in electricity price and the evaporating of recession fears from Eurozone.

Aluminum Cash LME:(Closing price on 18th January $2614.00)

  1. Key supports: $2378
  2. 100 day MA: $2343.00
  3. 200 day MA: $2524.50
  4. 100 week MA: $2642.60
  5. 200 week MA: $2209.90
  6. 100 month MA: $2020.00.
  7. 30 day View: Aluminum has to trade over $2642.60 (one hundred week moving average) to rise to $2817 and $3089 and $3309. (i) Overall trend is bullish as long as it trades over $2378. (ii) Aluminum will crash if it does not break $2817 in the next thirty days to $2209 and more.
  8. View till end June: Aluminum can rise to $3384.10 and $4390.20 by 30th June as long as it trades over $2020.00. (i) Sell off will be there if aluminum does not break $3089 initial key resistance.

 

MCX Aluminum near dated future (January future CMP Rs.221.30)

  1. Key supports: Rs.204.80
  2. 100 day MA: Rs.204.80
  3. 200 day MA: Rs.215.30
  4. 100 week MA: Rs.217.50
  5. 200 week MA: Rs.180.40
  6. 50 month MA: Rs.149.60
  7. 30 day view: Resistance is between Rs.227.60-Rs.239.80 zone. MCX aluminum near dated future has to break and trade over this zone to rise to Rs.261.50 and Rs.277.90. (i) Crash or sell in MCX aluminum near dated future will there if Rs.239.80 is not broken in the next one month to Rs.204.80 and Rs.180.40.
  8. View till end June: Aluminum needs to trade over Rs.208.50 to rise to Rs.277.90 and Rs.294.30. (i) Aluminum needs a daily close below Rs.208.50 for ten consecutive days to be in a medium term bearish zone.

Weather and electricity price will play a big role in price trend this year. Crash or sell off will be there if and only if (X) European electricity price zooms in the summer. (XI) Covid resurgence worldwide causes havoc once again. (XIII) Chinese demands bombards. (XIV) Global stock markets plunge.

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific c3urrencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Members, employees, directors, clients and all other people associated with “Insignia consultants” do trade in MCX metals and energies They may or may not have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in this report. They may also have open positions in MCX metals and energies futures in trading strategies other than those mentioned in this report.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

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