OUR VIEW ON THE FALL IN INDIA’S GOLD IMPORTS
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - India's gold imports in December plunged 79% from a year earlier to the lowest level in at least two decades for the month as a rally in local prices near record high dampened demand, two government sources told Reuters on Thursday.
India imported 20 tonnes in the December, down from 95 tonnes a year ago, said a government official, who asked not to be named since he is not authorised to speak to the media.
In value terms, December imports plunged to $1.18 billion from $4.73 billion a year ago, he said.
OUR VIEW ON FALL IN INDIA’S GOLD IMPORTS: The fall is temporary. Higher discounts by so called smugglers does not give us the real picture on India’s December gold imports. There is a lot of speculation in India gold was selling at a discount in the cash market or smuggled gold. We in Insignia Consultants do not have any evidence of this. But yeah, in certain places in India cash gold price was selling at a discount.
We further believe that fall in December gold imports can act as leeway for the government of India to cut custom duty on gold imports.
Fall in gold imports is just temporary and will rise with passing of each month. A high GDP growth of over 6.50% in 2023 will also ensure that Indian gold imports rise in 2023 and further years. Any price fall of more than five percent (if any) will empty the shelves of most jewellers in India this year.
Lastly if the Indian Rupee (usd/inr) fall below 80.00 versus the US dollar, then also it will increase gold imports very quickly. The pace of gold imports in India will rise in a big way if usd/inr trades below 80.00 and remains below 80.00 for a few months.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific c3urrencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Members, employees, directors, clients and all other people associated with “Insignia consultants” do trade in MCX metals and energies They may or may not have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in this report. They may also have open positions in MCX metals and energies futures in trading strategies other than those mentioned in this report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN INDIAN RUPEEES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORTTHE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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