Wednesday, May 15, 2019
TIME: 9:32 am IST
US DOLLAR-INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) short term view
Short term fundamentals are bad for the Indian economy. Autos ales and other economic number releases portray a slowdown. Sharp rise in Food inflation will only decrease consumer spending on durables, decrease savings and increase debt.
Rupee has weakened against the US dollar this week. Global uncertainty along will election jitters has resulted in rupee trading over 70.00 against the US dollar. Next week election result will be the key. (1) Rupee will gain against the US dollar if and only if there is a stable coalition government at the centre. (2) An unstable government can result in rupee weakening to 73.00 against the US dollar. (3) The third and the most unlikely scenario is that of BJP getting a simple majority on the its own. If it happens then it see usd/inr falling to 66.00 in the immediate term.
One needs to brace for very high short term volatility. Be prepared for 3-4 one way price moves in the US dollar-Indian rupee anytime in the next thirty days.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.